Chinese original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are set to capture two-thirds of global wind installations as Western competitors retreat to core markets. Wood Mackenzie’s latest ‘Global Wind Turbine OEMs Market Share Forecasts’ report reveals a fundamental shift in the global wind industry. Chinese manufacturers are positioned to benefit from strong domestic demand while pursuing international opportunities aggressively, connecting 1TW – representing two-thirds of global wind capacity – from 2025 to 2034. In contrast, Western turbine makers retain strongholds in mature markets through established relationships, energy security concerns, and protectionist policies.
By Endri Lico, Principal Analyst, Global Wind Supply Chain and Technology, Wood Mackenzie, Denmark
The top 10 wind turbine OEMs will collectively account for 98% of global grid connections during this period, with Chinese companies securing four of the top five global rankings.
Chinese OEMs Capitalise on Western Retreat to Core Markets
Chinese manufacturers are leveraging robust domestic growth, aggressive international expansion strategies, and up to 32% cost advantages over Western competitors to capture significant market share. Goldwind and Envision are forecast to lead the charge, each exceeding 200GW of installations over the next decade, followed by MingYang and Windey in the top five rankings.
Chinese OEMs are projected to capture 27% of capacity installed outside China from 2025 to 2034, deploying over 200GW internationally during the forecast period. This expansion focuses on emerging markets across Belt and Road Initiative countries.
The Chinese advantage stems from substantial domestic market scale, lower manufacturing costs, expertise in power system integration, and Western competitors’ focus on value over volume, which has opened international market opportunities.
Western OEMs Maintain Growth Despite Loss of Market Share
Despite losing overall market share, leading Western manufacturers are forecast to maintain growth trajectories in their core markets. Vestas will remain the largest Western OEM and secure a place in the global top three, leveraging its strong track record and geographic diversification to achieve a 5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next decade.
Siemens Gamesa and Nordex are projected to grow at 11% and 5% CAGR, respectively. Western OEMs continue to dominate their home territories, controlling more than 95% market share in Europe and North America, enabling sustained growth despite the global shift towards Chinese manufacturers.
Offshore Market Trends
The offshore wind segment presents distinct competitive dynamics, with Siemens Gamesa and Vestas controlling 92% of global markets outside China. However, Chinese manufacturers are making notable inroads, with MingYang leveraging domestic offshore leadership to target international opportunities, particularly in floating wind applications where Western OEMs remain cautious.
Global offshore turbine demand is projected to increase by 84% over the forecast period, with unit demand doubling despite the adoption of larger turbines. This growth offers opportunities for both established Western offshore leaders and emerging Chinese competitors seeking international penetration, as Chinese OEMs deploy proven domestic technologies abroad.
Technology Divergence Between Western and Chinese OEMs Accelerates
A clear technological divergence is emerging between Western and Chinese strategic approaches. Chinese OEMs are aggressively scaling turbine sizes, with onshore turbines featuring rotor diameters exceeding 220 metres expected to comprise 81% of grid connections in China over the next decade. In the offshore segment, half of Chinese turbines deployed will exceed 20MW capacity.
By contrast, Western OEMs are prioritising optimisation of returns from existing platforms rather than rapid scaling. This strategic difference reflects Western manufacturers’ focus on value over volume, while Chinese competitors emphasise aggressive capacity expansion and technological advancement through larger turbine platforms.
